Race day is finally here. The 145th running of the Kentucky Derby is set to take place later tonight. I’m on the record saying that horse racing is my favorite “sport” to gamble on. Is it because I may make the most money betting it? Fuck no. Honesty policy… I lose more often than not and usually get buried. To me, it’s truly the hardest sport to make money gambling on. But It’s absolutely electric and the Kentucky Derby is basically the Super Bowl for us horse degenerates. They don’t say it’s the most exciting two minutes in sports without reason. From start to finish, your hearts racing (see what I did there?) and it truly has you on the edge of your seat. There’s a lot of horse lingo that’s confusing but realistically, only those closely involved know what it all means. Below I’m going to give you a few horses I like as well as some betting strategies that will hopefully cripple your bookie. Let’s get after it.
#5 Improbable
The favorite in this race was supposed to be Omaha Beach. Unfortunately, he came down with some sort of breathing issue and had to scratch. What’s that mean for the betting market? Well, it definitely sucks the value out of some of the horses but we should still have a favorite around 4-1 come race time which still allows plenty of money to be made. To win, I settled on one of Bob Baffert’s horses. (He has 3 in the field that are all atop the betting market). Improbable recently went toe to toe with Omaha Beach at the Arkansas Derby coming up a nose short. However, if any loss was impressive, it was this one. Improbable broke poorly and was out of the position the entire race. Still, he battled back to lose by just a nose to Omaha Beach who had a perfect trip. The Arkansas Derby was also raced on a sloppy track and Louisville is expecting plenty of rain throughout the day showing that Improbable has no issue in the mud. He doesn’t break from the gate well but lucky for him, his post position won’t hurt him in that regard as he drew in near horses that want will sit off the pace. In fact, post five has seen a lot of success in this race. In the last seven years, it’s seen 2 wins and 3 thirds. My true concern comes with a jockey change. Irad Ortiz had the option between Baffert’s Improbable or Bill Mott’s Tacitus. He chose the latter telling me he thinks the 8 horse has a better chance to win. Luckily for us, he’ll be included in our tickets.
#8 Tacitus
As I said before, one of, if not, the hottest jockeys’ in the game right now is set to ride Tacitus in the Kentucky Derby. Tacitus seems like the wise guys pick this year but I can’t excuse what he’s been doing. He was the point leader in the Kentucky Derby qualifiers and just won his final prep race at the Wood Memorial. That sets up well for Tacitus albeit the last 8 Kentucky Derby winners have won their final prep race. He will also be the first point leader to not be the favorite come post time and that worries me that the smarter minds of horse racing don’t see him as a true threat. But he’s been working out phenomenal since coming to Churchill Downs and his bloodline indicates he’s primed to improve. Tacitus’ biggest asset is his size. He’s a much more filled out horse that seems able to withstand the traffic of a 20 horse race.
#15 Game Winner
If the track was playing fast and firm, Game Winner would be my choice. Unfortunately, the bad weather will undoubtedly affect the type of race horse than can win here. Now I’m not saying he won’t take to the mud, I’m just worried not being used to it will hurt him. It’s different when mud is being kicked in your face constantly and you don’t have experience with that. A lot of people are concerned with the post position. Given his victory from a wide post in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs previously, it’s not an issue for me. Joel Rosario picks up the mount and you can never rule him out. He’s a money rider and tends to do well when on strong horses. He’s lost his last two races but those were to Omaha Beach and Roadster. Two very excusable 2nd place finishes. There’s also some debate whether Bob Baffert (owner of both Roadster and Game Winner) let Roadster win to qualify for the Kentucky Derby since Game Winner had already qualified.
#13 Code of Honor
This could be your price horse that steals the Derby. Steal is exactly how he’ll do it to as Code of Honor will be stalking the field until the final stretch home. He’ll need a fast pace up front that burns up the stronger horses but if he gets it, he’ll be part of the equation. He has also shown the ability to battle back after being bumped which I think is important given the size of the field. Code of Honor lost by over six lengths last time out, but the 15-1 number is an absolute joke for a Shug McGaughey trained and Johnny Velazquez ridden horse. He won the Fountain of Youth at a similar price earlier this year and will be begging for a speed duel.
Boy that's a prey horse.
#3 By My Standards
I could’ve gone with Win Win Win or Vekoma here, but I’m stuck on the 3 horse here. By My Standards is getting a lot of steam based on his workouts so far this week. He’s outworking the class of the field and looks to improve off a disappointing 2 year-old season. Winning the Louisiana Derby at 23-1, this colt seems to have a knack for finding the board as a big underdog. I also don’t hate that he has a 2nd place on the off-track at Churchill in the past. I don’t think he can win, but he for sure can find a way in your trifectas and superfectas. If he can stay above the 15-1 odds, I think he’s got tremendous value.
The five horses I wrote about are not necessarily the horses I think are the strongest in the field. In horse racing, you have to find value and throw out some of the top horses. Baffert’s Roadster will be tough as you can never count out one of his horses. Maximum Security who plenty of horse minds really like, might get the lead and never look back. Win Win Win and Vekoma are two longer shots that I also could see being in the money. Although they aren’t my top horses, we will find places for them in our exotic tickets in case they decide to crash the party.
Betting Strategies: How to Spend $150 on the Kentucky Derby
(Adjust to your own betting limits)
#5 Improbable $10 Win-Place total: $20
#8 Tacitus $10 Win-Place-Show total: $30
#3 By My Standards $5 Place-Show total: $10
5,8,16 $1 exacta box total: $6
5,7,16 $1 exacta box total: $6
5,8,14 $1 exacta box total: $6
7,8,16 $1 exacta box total: $6
5,13,17 $1 exacta box total: $6
3,5,8,16 .50 trifecta box total: $12
5,8,13,16 .50 trifecta box total: $12
5,6,7,16 .50 trifecta box total: $12
5,7,8,17 .50 trifecta box total:$12
5,8,13,17 .50 trifecta box total:$12
Kentucky Derby Betting Notes
-California based horses have won 4 of the last Derbys, which favors Roadster, Game Winner, Improbable and Gray Magician.
-Six straight winners were undefeated during their races as a 3-year-old. This tips Tacitus, Roadster and Maximum Security
-In the Derby, 11 times the favorite had been 4-to-1 or longer. Only four times did the favorite win and in five of those races, the winner was at least 13-1. Could see a big price come in if this stays true.
-Trainer Steve Asmussen is winless in 19 Derby attempts. He has Long Range Toddy in this years edition.
-The Wood Memorial winner hasn’t produced a top 3 finisher in the Kentucky Derby since 2003. Tacitus, who we like, one this years Wood Memorial prep race.
-Only twice in the last 40 years has the Kentucky Derby finished with the favorite running 1st, and the second choice running second.
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