Conference tournament week is upon us. It’s a week filled of games from the moment you wake up, to the moment you go to bed. Therefore, if you’re a degenerate like me, you’ll have action on as an many games as possible. But this is a dangerous week if you’re not careful. Lines are tight, and the matchups are tough. Here are 5 things I look for in betting during Championship week.
1. Bubble Teams/Motivation
This week is huge for bubble teams going into selection Sunday. It’s their last opportunity to boost the resume and convince the committee why they belong in the NCAA tournament. Specifically take advantage of this in a bubble teams first game. A bubble team tends to sit in the 5-9 seed range (varies on conference strength) and will look to start off strong. A team in that range most likely plays a much inferior opponent to start of their tournament campaign and will try to gain some momentum by beating up on the bottom teams in the conference. By gaining momentum early in the tournament, a team can easily find its rhythm as opposed to a team that may be coming off a double bye and not playing a game for about 5-7 days. Another factor of motivation comes from the superior teams of the conference. The college basketball season is long and tiring. Honestly, some top teams just trying to get healthy for the NCAA tournament. That COULD mean resting some top players and utilizing their benches more in some of these games. Teams like Duke, Virginia Tech, and Kentucky may find it beneficial to keep their injured stars out (Zion, Justin Robinson, Reid Travis) and rested for another week.
Examples: 2011 Connecticut (9th seed), 2017 Michigan (8th seed), Baylor (7th seed), 2009 Mississippi State (6th seed) all made it to the conference championship boosting their resumes for the NCAA tournament.
2. Follow the Steam
A “steam” play is just a fancier term for following the sharp money. A lot of the big boys come out to bet during conference championship week and if you hesitate on a game, the number will most likely move, completely taking the value out of it. Therefore, it’s important to be active on the board and follow where the money is going as the numbers come out. Now the sharp money isn’t always right, but there’s a reason $20,000 is being bet on it as opposed to the usual $10,000 for them. That’s because the numbers are weak. With so many games going on, Vegas tends to be a point or two off and that’s when the sharps smell blood. More than ever you will see movement on the spread and total in these games and trust me when I say even a point difference can be what separates you from winning your bet, and suffering a bad beat. Nobody wants a bad beat in March, it cripples you. Gambling is just a hobby for most, but for them, it’s a profession. Follow the professionals if you don’t have your own opinion the game.
3. Early Morning Unders
I have to tip Ben for this theory because he’s the one who turned me onto it. We’ve both had some success with it and I can confidently say it’s a good angle to use when handicapping totals. At this point in the season, most teams are in a routine. That routine consists of waking up, going to classes (probably not), and getting ready for their game that night. Now come tournament week, the time of games are sporadic. Some of which come during the morning in which many teams are not used to dealing with (besides a weekend game or two). Humans are creatures of habit and breaking routines are usually uncomfortable. We like taking the under when two teams are forced to break a rhythm. The concept relies on it taking some time for the bodies to wake up as well as some bad shooting out of the gate. Nobody is really a morning person anyway. The theory is stronger with higher totals but doesn’t shy away from a low total either.
4. Location Matters
Some might think this ones a stretch, but it’s not. Road games are tough for college athletes and come tournament week, they will be forced to play a bunch of games away from home. Look at the major conferences and where the tournament is being held. Accessibility for a teams fan base is huge because they can then mimic an at home atmosphere. Any advantage a team can get, will help their conference championship hopes. For instance, the SEC tournament is being played in Tennessee. Therefore, the 3-seeded Volunteers will most likely have a crowd advantage over top seed LSU if they meet sometime during the tournament. Look for the fan bases to help their teams in the closing minutes of big games.
5. Don’t Overexpose Yourself
This might be the most important tip of all. There are so many games this week that my mouths salivating. I love betting a lot of games because I believe it gives me the best chance to make money. But that’s not the case for a lot of people. Ben’s very patient. He posts three games a day and has kept a positive record from day one. He’s got his game-plan and I’ve got mine. Betting more games than usual also can bring the most dangerous part of betting into the picture. Chasing. Chasing is when you’ve lost so much money you try and make it up by betting more on a game. Some people may get out of dodge with that, but more often than not, those people end in buried even more. Don’t bet more than your comfortable with. There’s the idea that “the house always win” for a reason. Its because gambling fucking tough. Remember in high school when you had to do like biology and chemistry stuff? Just some of the most confusing shit ever… Well gambling makes that look like reading a Dr. Seuss book. This game is hard and you’re betting real money on it so be smart and pick your spots.
Happy Conference Championship week. Ben and I will post plays throughout as well so tail us if you’d like!
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