By the time you begin reading this, you should be well aware that Bryce Harper has signed with the Philadelphia Phillies. If not, my guy Ben wrote a great article discussing the deal and what he thinks about it. Here’s the link.
https://www.thepressboxblog.com/blog/bryce-harper-to-the-phillies
Brilliant work by Ben no? The Phillies have by far been the most aggressive team this offseason. In addition to trading for former all stars Jean Segura and J.t Realmuto, the Phillies now have signed two outfielders in Bryce Harper and Andrew McCutchen. Top to bottom their lineup looks like one of the leagues best. Here’s a projection of what we might see next year for the Phillies batting order.
That’s a deep lineup that most rotations will have a problem finding outs in. However, the biggest issue with the Phillies last year was their bullpen. Ranking just 20th in bullpen ERA, this was their biggest offseason need. To address this need, they signed former Yankee David Robertson. In the past 5 years there may not be a more consistent bullpen arm than Robertson. Long story short the Phillies had a fantastic offseason. Now onto the point of my article and how this offseason has affected baseballs gambling market.
MLB’s Win Totals
On January 8th, most major sports books released their preseason win totals for baseball. The Phillies’ total was set at 83 and quickly moved to 87 by sharp money. The early money was a reaction to the initial moves made by the Phillies in acquiring Segura, Robertson and McCutchen. Since those numbers were posted, the Phillies made two more major acquisitons that affected the win total market. The Realmuto trade, and Harper signing have now moved the number to 89.5. Oddsmakers have adjusted the Phillies win total by 6.5 wins. No other team in baseball has seen their number increase or decrease by three 3 points. Clearly Vegas and wise money believe the Phillies offseason moves make them a dangerous team this year.
World Series Odds
Philadelphia’s World Series odds opened at 20/1 and if you were able to grab an early ticket, good for you. Since that, the number has been seen as low as 8/1. Before the Harper signing, the Phillies odds gravitated to a 12/1 price that had been set as precaution to the Harper signing. Most books believed putting odds like that on an 80 win team from 2018 would steer away heavy money. Including this moron.
That wasn’t the case. Not even an hour after the Bryce Harper signing, the Phillies found themselves as the 3rd favorite to win the World Series. Is that an overreaction? Probably but this team is a legitimate threat to win it all this year. They have a deep lineup, with an ace in Aaron Nola and a very capable bullpen now with the signing of David Robertson. If Vegas is scared of them, any team in the NL should be terrified because I expect this team to be near the top of the division for the next couple of years. I have two tips in betting on Phillies’ games this year. Early in the season Vegas is vastly overprice this team. We saw them do it with their win total and World Series odds. Therefore, bet against them as heavy chalk. This lineup has a ton of new pieces and should take some time to adjust to the pressure of being one of the leagues best. The second tip is very simple. When Nola isn’t on the mound, bet over.
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