I am going to try my hand again at betting baseball. I have found baseball to be the hardest for me to handicap because I think it is the least predictable sport. You can't predict when a guy like Mike Trout is about to start a 10 game hitting slump. You can't predict when Clayton Kershaw is going to get lit up by the Diamondbacks for 5 runs in the first two innings while he was in his prime years, speaking from experience on that one. All you can do is take the knowledge you know and apply it as you see fit.
I see fit for a game this afternoon.
Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Indians 3:10 CT ESPN
The two starting pitchers in this one are Ivan Nova (White Sox) and Mike Clevinger (Indians). Both of these guys are making their first starts on the year so I went into last years stats to help find some reasoning for this game and I found it.
Last season, Nova and Clevinger both were at their best when they took the mound during the day. Nova had a 2.84 ERA in 66.2 innings during day games last year. Clevinger had a 2.04 ERA in 88.1 innings during the day last year. So for whatever set of reasons these two both loved taking the ball during the day and they performed admirably while doing so.
The second reason to like this play is the temperature in Cleveland today. At first pitch, the temp is supposed to be around a HIGH of 35-36 degrees. Yikes that is cold. And it has been scientifically proven that baseballs don't travel as well in cold air. Something about air pressure or something like that, I'm not going to act like I understand. But the fact remains true that the colder the weather, the less likely you are to see runs be put up in the board.
The last reason is the Cleveland Indians have quite a few impact players on the DL, such as Jason Kipnis and Francisco Lindor, and the lack of ability in their lineup has showed so far in their offensive performance. Through three games the Indians are hitting .133 as a team. EWWWWWWWW.
Also, if you are the type to care about this. The wonderful Action Network app, a must have app for all bettors, is showing that 77% of the money is currently being bet on the over. But, despite the fact that a higher percentage of money is being bet on the over, the the total has remained at 7.5. That tells me that the "sharp" bettors have bet the under in this one. Follow the smart money.
Let's start our baseball season off with a winner.
Pick: Under 7.5
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