1-2 our last time out on Saturday, bringing us to 23-18 overall in the L3. Conference tournament week, buckle up!
Love/Lean:
UNC-Greensboro vs. Wofford 6 p.m. CT ESPN
My love and my lean are coming from this one. We got the SoCon championship tonight. Wofford is more than likely in the NCAA Tournament regardless of tonights result and Greensboro must win to get in as they are firmly on the bubble.
I'll be looking at the total in this one. First things first, each team is playing their third game in as many days so we will see some tired legs in this one. Secondly, neither team likes to get out and run to begin with (Pace Rankings: Wofford 282; UNC-G 183) and both teams have top 75 ranked defenses (Wofford 72; UNC-G 74) according to KenPom. Lastly, both of their regular season games were real low scoring with an average of 122.5 total points in those two matchups.
As a result of all of these factors, I think this is a hard-nosed conference championship game that is played to the final whistle. I expect a slow pace and both teams trying to hunker down on defense, and take the air out of the ball on offense. In terms of the side, I think it will be a low scoring game with limited possessions therefore giving the advantage to the team GETTING the points. I will also take a team playing on the bubble as they have a little more urgency trying to secure that at-large bid.
Give me the points and the under.
Love Pick: Under 136
Lean Pick: UNC-Greensboro +7
Like:
Monmouth vs. Iona 8 p.m. CT ESPN2
This one here is the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference championship. Oh my this one is so ugly. We have the 16-15 Gaels of Iona against the 14-20 Hawks from Monmouth. YIKES.
When I began looking at the games/lines I originally liked the opening under of 145. Well that number quickly disappeared and the total is currently at 139, a whopping 6 point difference from the opening number. So when I did a deeper dive into why this was the case, and I saw that these two were polar opposites.
In regular season conference play alone, Iona had the conferences 1st ranked offense and Monmouth had the conferences 2nd ranked defense. Knowing that as well as seeing that the total dropped 6 points already, that tells me that the oddsmakers are telling me defense > offense in this one. Again, I think the championship game brings a tight game with every possession counting. And for what it's worth, Monmouth won the only regular season matchup between the two 83-81. It will be a very ugly one to watch and you may need to stomach a few tough moments but the Hawks keep it within the number tonight.
Pick: Monmouth +5
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