We went 2-1 on Monday bringing our overall record in the column to 12-8 overall since the start. We'll take it. Back at it tonight.
Love:
Central Florida vs. South Florida 6 p.m. CT ESPN3
On the outside looking in South Florida looks like a solid team. 18-9 record would appear to be a fringe NCAA tournament team at this point in the year and a record no one should be ashamed of. But when you take a deep look at the numbers the Bulls are hardly as good as they seem. They are an underwhelming 7-7 in American conference play and of their 18 wins on the season only TWO have come against KenPom top 100 teams. One against a team hardly in the top 100 in UConn (ranked 94th) and another against 71st ranked Memphis. South Florida relies on their defense to win games because they just don't have an offense to write home about.
UCF is about as balanced of a team as you can get. The 53rd ranked offense and 42nd ranked defense on KenPom. They give you a balanced attack and can win the game on both ends of the court. They are also playing great ball right now. They have won four of the last five with the only loss coming at Cincy last week 60-55. Those of you who have been following we had UCF +8 on that night. Chaaaaaa-ching. Ultimately I think UCF is just a better version of what South Florida is and they continue to play well and get the win as the road favorite.
Pick: UCF -2.5
Like:
Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech 6 p.m. CT ESPNU
This played is situational based. Oklahoma State is coming off a whopping from Kansas State on Saturday and Texas Tech is coming off whopping up on Kansas on Saturday night. Naturally, the expectation here is coming into this game and off of a loss Oklahoma State will be more motivated and Texas Tech could come into this game a little sluggish.
The general rule of thumb in college basketball is depending on the matchup and the venue the game is happening at, home court can be worth anywhere from 3-6 points the spread. There is a giant talent mismatch in this one and it is in Lubbock so let's say that the home court advantage is worth the max 6 points. A few weeks back when these two played at Oklahoma State the spread closed at Texas Tech -6/-7 points depending on where you shop. So just basic math here, this spread should be Texas Tech -12-/-13 points. I think we are looking at an overreaction from the oddsmakers in this one. This could be one that comes down the end and possibly needing a backdoor. There will be a couple cringeworthy moments from the Cowboys in this one but we will take all of the points in this one.
Pick: Oklahoma State +14.5
Lean:
Tennessee Vols vs. Ole Miss 6 p.m. SEC Network
Lets take a look at some splits here:
Tennessee Offensive PPG- Season Avg (83.5) Road Games PPG (85.3)
Tennessee Defensive PPG- Season Avg (69) Road Games PPG Given Up (78.2)
Ole Miss Offensive PPG- Season Avg (76.4) Home Games PPG (80.2)
Ole Miss Defensive PPG- Season Avg (70.2) Home Games PPG Given Up (70.3)
Those defensive splits are pretty dramatic. For whatever set of reasons, the Vols leave Knoxville and all of a sudden let their guard down on defense. Lucky for us tonight, they decide to score a few more points on the road as well.
When I started looking at games last night this game stuck out to me when the total was 149, it is now at the time of writing (1:15 p.m. CT) at 145.5. The only reason this game isn't my love is because the line has moved against us. I hate to go against the money here but the home/road splits here for both teams are too good to pass up. Tennessee has lost two of three games and they will look to right the ship tonight and their offense is their key to doing so.
Pick: Over 145.5
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