Our first sweep last night. Let's keep the train rolling, hopefully you all have been tailing this week.
Overall: 7-2
Love: 2-1
Like: 2-1
Lean: 3-0
LOVE: The first NBA pick
Phoenix Suns vs. Cleveland Cavaliers 6 p.m. CT
Ahhhh the NBA is back. On one end we have teams that will beginning their charge to the playoffs (Please LeBron, just get to the playoffs), we also have the race to Zion heating up. And that race to Zion includes both of these teams. I think this one is pretty simple. Neither team has any interest in winning therefore there will be very limited engagement on the defensive end. On top of that these two teams are the two last ranked teams in defensive efficiency in the whole NBA according to ESPN's Team Hollinger Stats.
I think it's safe to say that on top of all of these juicy over stats both of these teams will be coming back from the All-Star break ready for buckets. Don't overthink it.
Pick: Over 220.5
LIKE:
UCF Knights vs Cincinnati Bearcats 6 p.m. CT ESPN2
These two teams are very similar:
Offensive efficiency: Cincy (38) UCF (54)
Defensive efficiency: Cincy (35) UCF (53)
Tempo: Cincy (342) UCF (312)
As you see, both teams want to work to get the right shot on the offensive end and they want their true identities to be on the defensive end. In a game like this I think both teams will be real slow and limit the possessions. Anytime you can get 8 points in a game where the possessions are limited you can sign me up!
One of the main reasons I never like teams like Virginia come tournament time (Sorry Dom) is because I think you are always susceptible to an upset when you play slow and limit your possessions. All it takes is for the opponent to get a hot shooting hand. And while that is a factor for both teams tonight, I would rather have the points than be laying the points in that situation.
We have a low total (128) in this one and that only validates that there will be limited possessions. UCF comes into this game on a three game win streak and they currently sit one game behind Cincy in the American Conference standings, the motivation will be there. What an ugly game this should be, give me the points.
Pick: UCF +8
LEAN:
Georgia St vs. App State
This pick is purely stats based. Both of these teams rank in the top 80 in adjusted tempo and rank in the bottom third of the NCAA in defensive efficiency. A wonderful recipe for an over.
Now a lot of things have to go right when you have a total this high, needing at least 79-80 on each side. we need both teams to hit their shots because the pace/shot attempts should be there. Them going in the basket is another thing. App State is hitting their overs at a 68.2% on the season, not to mention 6-1 (83%) at home on the year. The home team should set the tempo and Georgia St will have no problem following suit. Georgia St hasn't scored less than 76 points in a month. Let's take the points.
Pick: Over 158
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