LOVE:
Virginia -5.5 vs Virginia Tech 6 p.m. CT ESPN
We have two teams here moving in the opposite directions. UVA has been solid all year, coming into this game 22-2 & 10-2 in conference (both losses coming to Duke). V Tech started this year off great, and the optics of a 20-5 still look great, but they simply haven't been the same team since Justin Robinson has been out of the lineup the last five games.
This game will be won/lost from beyond the arc. VT produces 40.4% of their points from deep, and the aforementioned Robinson is shooting at a 41% clip from deep this year. With the loss of Robinson again tonight and UVA having the second ranked three point defense in the whole country=major advantage UVA. On the other side, UVA is the most effective three point shooting team in the ACC this year and VT ranks 12th in the conference at defending the three. Again, advantage UVA. The third advantage being UVA seemingly thrives on the road, coming into this game covering the spread at an astonishing 77% clip on the road this year, and that percentage rises to 83% when they are a road favorite.
Simply put, UVA is an elite all around team. and their strengths lie where VT's weaknesses are. Lay the number with no hesitation.
Pick: UVA -5.5
LIKE:
Kansas State vs. West Virginia (+7) 8 p.m. CT ESPN
Now as one who holds a 100-1 future ticket on the Kansas State Wildcats this one pains me. But you have to take the emotion out of betting and this is a bad spot for K State. They are coming off a double digit loss at home to Iowa state on Saturday and they have a quick turnaround game on the road against WVU. Bob Huggins and WVU have been underwhelming all year but they are feisty at home with a 3-3 ATS mark in conference play at home.
Kansas State star forward Dean Wade left the game in Saturdays loss with a foot injury but all indications right now (writing this at 4 pm) are that he will give it a go tonight. Regardless of Wade, K State is also missing guard Cartier Diarra which could prove to be a big loss in a game like tonight.
To be quite honest, I don't sense a statistical advantage like in the previous game but in betting you have to play situations. This situation reeks of a letdown for K State as they are limping into quick turnaround on the road. Give me the 7 here.
Pick: WVU +7
LEAN:
Illinois Fighting Illini (+11.5) vs. Wisconsin 7 p.m. CT Fox Sports 1
February has been very kind to the Illini. They are 4-0 this month with notable wins over Michigan State at home and then on the road against Ohio State, covering the spread in 3 of those 4. Meanwhile, Wisconsin comes into this game losing the last two. Albeit, those losses coming at the hands of Michigan and Michigan State.
Winning and losing are contagious regardless of who you play and the Illini are learning how to win and should come into this game with confidence that they can compete, sometimes that is half the battle. Ethan Happ is clearly the best player in this matchup but if it were up to me I would say the next two best players are the Illini guards Trent Fraizer and Ayo Dosunmu. The dynamic guard duo for the Illini can take over any game when they decide that they want to and I think that they do enough to keep this one within the number. Is Illini basketball back?!?!?!?
5:15 p.m. update: The line has moved two points since writing, all the way down to 9.5. Still would play at that number. Lets have a night.
Pick: Illini +11.5/9.5
Коментарі